Good Friday morning! Before the weekend begins, let’s look at what happened overnight and what today’s trading session might have in store for Indian markets.

Opening Snapshot

NIFTY 50 closed yesterday (June 25) at 24,056 — up a modest +0.14% or about 34 points. Think of NIFTY 50 as a scorecard for India’s top 50 most valuable companies. If NIFTY goes up, it means those big companies are doing well on average. A 0.14% move is like your salary going up by ₹14 for every ₹10,000 — small, but still positive.

Now, the interesting story is under the surface. Let’s look at how different-sized companies performed yesterday:

  • NIFTY 100 (Large Cap): 25,114 (+0.15%) — These are India’s 100 biggest companies. They barely moved, holding steady.
  • NIFTY MIDCAP 50: 17,588 (-0.58%) — Mid-sized companies (think fast-growing businesses worth ₹10,000–50,000 Cr) had a rougher day.
  • NIFTY SMALLCAP: 18,783 (-0.44%) — Small companies also slipped.

Winner of yesterday: Large caps. The big, steady names held their ground while smaller companies pulled back. This often signals that investors are being cautious — parking money in safer, larger names.

Yesterday’s Cap Category Recap

Large Caps — the stars and the strugglers:

  • Maruti Suzuki soared +3.75% — auto sector had an outstanding day (more on why below). Tata Motors CV (commercial vehicles) jumped +4.98%, the single biggest large-cap mover of the day.
  • ICICI Bank (+1.01%) and SBI (+1.04%) also performed well — banking sector staying resilient.
  • On the flip side, Infosys fell -1.46% and Bharti Airtel dropped -1.42% — IT and telecom faced headwinds (Apple’s global price shock didn’t help sentiment for tech broadly). HCL Technologies also slipped -1.19%.

Mid Caps — mostly in the red:

  • Persistent Systems fell -1.77% and Polycab dropped -1.67% — both reflect the cautious mood in IT and industrials.
  • Mphasis was nearly flat at +0.10% — holding on.

Small Caps — a mixed picture:

  • Campus Activewear bounced +2.17% — consumer footwear finding buyers.
  • Kaynes Technology (electronics manufacturing) rose +1.92% — a bright spot in the small-cap space.
  • Bikaji Foods slipped -1.59% — FMCG small caps facing some selling pressure.

News Driving Today’s Market

Story 1 — Apple’s 6% crash and what it means for IT: Apple raised prices on MacBooks by 15-20% and iPads by 15-25%, blaming rising component costs (memory chips). Investors punished the stock — Apple fell nearly 6%, its steepest drop since April 2025. Why does this matter in India? Because Infosys, TCS, HCL and Wipro earn a big chunk of their revenue from US tech giants like Apple and their supply chain. When Apple is in trouble, Indian IT companies feel the chill. Watch IT stocks carefully in today’s session — they may face continued selling pressure.

Story 2 — El Niño is back on the radar: Experts are warning about a possible El Niño weather pattern, which historically causes below-normal monsoon rainfall in India. A deficient monsoon means less water for farms — which hits fertiliser demand, tractor sales, rural spending, and two-wheeler volumes. The FMCG and auto sectors (rural-facing companies especially) could see cautious sentiment. NIFTY FMCG rose +0.75% yesterday, but that may face pressure if El Niño fears intensify.

Story 3 — Auto sector roared back: NIFTY AUTO jumped +2.41% yesterday — the single biggest sector move. Maruti (+3.75%) and Tata Motors CV (+4.98%) led the charge. No single headline drove this, but strong May auto sales data and positive monsoon-start sentiment (before El Niño fears) likely fuelled the rally. Watch for any follow-through today, or whether profit-booking kicks in after such a strong move.

Global Overnight Recap

US Markets (June 25 close):

  • Dow Jones: 51,921 (+0.14%) — non-tech names like healthcare, financials, and industrials held up well.
  • S&P 500: 7,357 (-0.01%) — essentially flat. A tiny dip.
  • NASDAQ: 25,359 (-0.46%) — fourth consecutive day of losses, largely because of the Apple shock.

Here’s the impact chain for India: When NASDAQ falls due to tech stock troubles (not economic collapse), it creates a “risk-off” mood among global investors — they get a bit nervous and may reduce exposure to emerging markets like India. This can put mild pressure on Indian IT stocks specifically, because investors assume what hurts US tech companies might hurt their Indian vendors too.

Asian Markets (this morning):

  • Nikkei 225 (Japan): Around 69,384 — Japanese markets have been relatively range-bound this week.
  • Hang Seng (Hong Kong): Around 23,336 — Chinese markets remain cautious as investors await more stimulus signals from Beijing.

When Asian markets are soft, it adds to the “meh” mood heading into the Indian session.

Crude & Rupee Check

Brent Crude: Around $74.70 per barrel — crude has risen nearly 2% in recent sessions.

Here’s something important to understand: India imports about 85% of its oil. So when oil prices rise, India pays more for every barrel. That cost doesn’t stay at the port — it travels through petrol, diesel, transport costs, and eventually shows up in the price of vegetables, courier deliveries, and your Ola/Uber ride. A move from $73 to $75 isn’t dramatic, but sustained rises put pressure on India’s import bill.

At crude around $74–75, the impact is manageable. But it’s worth watching. Oil & Gas stocks like ONGC fell -2.95% yesterday — counterintuitively, rising global crude doesn’t always help India’s state-owned oil companies, since domestic fuel prices are regulated and they often absorb the difference.

USD/INR: Around 96 — the rupee has weakened slightly against the dollar over recent months. A weaker rupee is a double-edged sword: it makes IT exports more profitable (Indian companies earn in dollars, spend in rupees — so each dollar is worth more), but it also makes imports (like crude oil) more expensive.

FII/DII Flows — Who’s Buying?

Yesterday’s provisional flow data (June 25):

  • FII (Foreign Institutional Investors): Net bought ₹383.76 Cr
  • DII (Domestic Institutional Investors — Indian mutual funds, insurance companies): Net bought ₹5,747.75 Cr

Think of FIIs as foreign money managers deciding whether to invest in India versus other countries. DIIs are Indian institutions (like LIC or SBI Mutual Fund) putting domestic savings to work. Yesterday, DIIs were the real heroes — buying aggressively while foreign investors dipped their toes in cautiously. This strong DII support is what kept the market from falling despite global tech headwinds. When Indian institutions are buying, it’s usually a sign of underlying confidence in domestic fundamentals.

Key Sectors to Watch Today

IT sector (Large + Mid Cap IT): Watch Infosys, HCL Tech, TCS at the large-cap end. Mid-cap IT names like Persistent Systems and Mphasis may also see pressure. The Apple shock + four days of NASDAQ losses creates a tricky backdrop for tech exporters today.

Auto sector: After yesterday’s surge (+2.41%), Maruti and Tata Motors CV may see profit-booking. But any positive news on festive season demand or export orders could keep the rally alive. NIFTY AUTO is your sector to watch if you want high-drama action today.

Banking large caps: ICICI Bank and SBI outperformed yesterday. With domestic DII flows strong and RBI opening the term money market to more institutions, banking remains a relatively stable sector. Keep an eye on how they open today.

3 Things to Watch Today

  1. IT stocks reaction to Apple: If Infosys and HCL Tech fall further in today’s session, it could signal that global clients are becoming cautious about IT spending. Conversely, if they recover, the market may be shrugging off the Apple news as one-off.

  2. Auto sector profit-booking: Maruti was up 3.75% yesterday. Big single-day jumps often invite sellers the next day who “take profits.” If Maruti opens flat or slightly down, that’s normal. If it falls sharply, it signals broader concern.

  3. India VIX: India VIX — the “fear index” — fell -2.54% to 13.05 yesterday. A falling VIX means traders are becoming less fearful. That’s good news for the market. Watch if VIX continues lower today, which would suggest a calm session.

One Investor Tip

If you invest via SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) in a mutual fund, today’s mild global uncertainty is actually your friend. When markets dip slightly, your SIP buys more units at lower prices — which means more wealth when markets recover. The auto sector’s strength and domestic DII buying signal that India’s fundamentals remain solid. Stay the course, don’t check your portfolio every hour on a Friday, and enjoy the weekend.

Sources: Global market data via Yahoo Finance and web research, FII/DII provisional data via NSE, news from public market disclosures. This briefing is for education only — not investment advice.

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